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 Urban
Systems Models (USM) are evolving into indispensible
tools for decision-making and in explaining complex
sustainability issues to the general public, Dr.
Jeff Tayman said at the February Randall Lewis
Seminar Series.
Urban System Models, which emerged in the 1950s,
have evolved into tightly integrated models that
enable the examination of a broad range of issues
that cannot be considered with standard demographic
and economic forecasting tools, such as air quality,
traffic congestion and travel pricing strategies,
Dr. Tayman said.
Earlier generations of USM were criticized because
they failed to consider the economics of land
markets, Dr. Tayman said. The omission was in large
part due to the lack of data, the complexity of
model calibration and implementation, and lack of
expertise in many agencies, he said.
These barriers are now being overcome, and the new
generation of USM is tightly integrated around a
detailed spatial representation of land economics
that are being used in practical policy analysis.
Todays USM must provide a clear description of
methodology, data and assumptions that can be easily
understood by the public, and can simulate the
impact resulting from various policy decisions, Dr.
Tayman said.
Dr. Tayman, who recently retired as the Department
Director of Technical Services for the San Diego
Association of Governments, is a specialist in
demographic, economic, and statistical methods; the
design and implementation of complex, large scale
transportation, socioeconomic, and land use models;
and the development of complex, integrated data
systems for small geographic areas using innovative
GIS and relational database technology.
He has had extensive experience working with elected
officials and other stakeholders on policy matters
affected by demographic and economic changes. He
currently has a part time appointment in the
Economics Department at the University of
California, San Diego.
While expensive, todays integrated USM are a good
investment for the future in making important policy
decisions, Tayman said. They likely will be joint
efforts between agencies and academia, and efforts
also are under way to centralize USM so the
knowledge can be shared, he said.
Dr.
Tayman's Slide Presentation (pdf) 3.63MB
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